The Immortality of the PC

[pulsoft]

Further to recent posts here about desktop and mobile...

Over the last few years, there have been endless articles and discussions predicting the death of the PC. But can the PC really die? Surely what the PC lacks in mobility, it makes up for in productivity? Find out why the PC isn't going anywhere. Read this article now to discover why the PC is going to remain the pivotal locus of business productivity for years to come.

http://www.idgconnect-resources.com/...71DX1&L=870647

If link not working - essentially:

"> Blog Abstract
Aaron Suzuki (Global) - Death of the PC? Not Going to Happen.
Posted by Aaron Suzuki Company SmartDeploy 01/25/2013
Aaron Suzuki (Global) - Death of the PC? Not Going to Happen.


We have all heard the discussions and read the articles detailing the demise of the PC. This is simply a bogus argument. There will be no death of the PC, not in 2013 nor in the years that follow. The "Post PC era" is better labeled the "PC-plus era". The reason why is very simple: productivity. I cannot (yet) use all 10 of my fingers on a touch-based device and make as much happen as fast as I can with a full-size keyboard with 101 keys. If this is true for me, I'm willing to bet this is true for others.

However, I agree that the portability of the work desktop is problematic. Without digressing too deeply into tech-talk, most enterprises are looking to virtual machines as a solution. The problem is that currently, except for the largest, wealthiest companies, desktop transformation through virtualization is out of reach. Current offerings are just too complicated, requiring software that is too expensive to buy and implement for all but the largest enterprises. But even with more sophisticated solutions like these, the PC is not going away. In fact, because there isn't really an easy way to achieve modern endpoint manageability (to centralize and manage desktops, making data and applications available on demand from any device, cost effectively, to a wide variety of customers), the PC is going to remain the pivotal locus of business productivity for years to come. I would even go a step further and argue that with good desktop virtualization software, devices will proliferate further in the work place, and people will use even more of an array of devices to be productive, and the PC will be the hub of productivity.

When compared to the speed with which the private cloud has gone mainstream, the desktop continues to lag in evolution from the data center. The private cloud was able to take fast hold because of the tremendous efficiency improvements carried over from the first project: server consolidation through virtualization. The promise of better manageability of virtualized data centers made the private cloud immediately relevant, maximizing efficiency gains of virtualization. The move with the desktop, similar to the data center, is in manageability. However, because desktops do not gain efficiency through virtualization the same way servers do, the path and results are different. Desktops really should have characteristics of the cloud such as centralized management, self-service and complete fluidity. When that happens, it could alter the future of the PC.

There will be more use of mobile devices and tablets and they will get cheaper and better all around. Phones will continue to get bigger and more capable. But all of these devices will remain a complement to the productivity powerhouse that is the PC. Lots of organizations are bound to create and expand BYOD policies, but the primary devices people are going to bring to work are going to be dominated by powerful computers with keyboards and pointing devices. These are amazing, powerful, and incredibly inexpensive devices that business won't be able to live without.



By Aaron Suzuki, Chief Executive Officer and co-founder of SmartDeploy"

Kathryn Cave
Editor
IDG Connect

[Ray in Capetown]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

I fully concur
Thanks for the article.

[jkwrpc]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

Like others I do agree with the article. I also think something that gets little mention is the tremendous reliability found in today's desktops. I can't tell you the last time I suffered a major pc failure. We (myself included) criticize Microsoft for host of issues, but their OS like the pc's is really reliable. I cannot tell you the last time I saw the infamous 'blue screen of death'. So we have reliable hardware, reliable OS, and together nothing really matches them for productivity.

I found it curious to see that the writer also felt desktop development was lagging.

Thanks for the post.

[DaveM]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

Someone has to be on the other side. So:

When was the last time you went into an office(or anywhere else) and saw someone at a typewriter? The PC replaced it. Prior to that, the typewriter replaced the ink and quill with reams of paper. Prior to that, the ink and quill replaced chisels and rocks.

Something will replace the PC. There will be computing to a great degree, but it is changing. Not sure if it will be tablet types or what, but suspecting we may be wearing a head gear and send info to some other place verbally through our mic. We will see what we are working on through some implant. This would be a no hands approach. Just a think, see, talk scenario.

Somebody had to say it.

[Ray in Capetown]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

Dave, that description sounds like my wife discovered the technology decades ago.

[DaveM]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

smart azz reply LOL

Dave, that description sounds like my wife discovered the technology decades ago.

Does that mean you go back to chisels and stone???

[pulsoft]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

Yeah, I've seen those movies too...

You are right though, at some point in the future most data entry will be voice and/or scan based, but the associated learning curve and uptake will be much harder for the workforce than getting to grips with mobile toys and phones.

Just my 2c

Paul

Someone has to be on the other side. So:

When was the last time you went into an office(or anywhere else) and saw someone at a typewriter? The PC replaced it. Prior to that, the typewriter replaced the ink and quill with reams of paper. Prior to that, the ink and quill replaced chisels and rocks.

Something will replace the PC. There will be computing to a great degree, but it is changing. Not sure if it will be tablet types or what, but suspecting we may be wearing a head gear and send info to some other place verbally through our mic. We will see what we are working on through some implant. This would be a no hands approach. Just a think, see, talk scenario.

Somebody had to say it.

[Allen Klimeck]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

Does that mean you go back to chisels and stone???

Only if you want it to last!

[2ninerniner2]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

Only if you want it to last!

... or this :)

Bought this custom system a couple weeks ago (some assembly required) - long live the desktop PC!

Jan 2013 System specs.png

[Ray in Capetown]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

Right up my alley - all the switching done by the humble hydrogen atom.
The only problem so far :- in the UK also, a class of advanced students was given a DNA molecule to see who could read it fastest.
The best time? 3 hours and a bit. (source: Chris Smith at Naked Scientist)
Chisel and stone for now.

[Clipper87]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

I had an interesting discussion the other day and what came out is that we may very well see tablet devices becoming so powerful that you simply put them in a dock that attaches to a keyboard, screen, mouse etc to effectively become... a PC. So the PC as we know it today may indeed very well disappear.

[DaveM]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

we may very well see tablet devices becoming so powerful that you simply put them in a dock that attaches to a keyboard, screen, mouse etc to effectively become... a PC. So the PC as we know it today may indeed very well disappear.

When Laptops came out, docking stations shortly followed. Just as you describe. Desktop is still here.

[mronck]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

......Read this article now to discover why the PC is going to remain the pivotal locus of business productivity for years to come. We have all heard the discussions and read the articles detailing the demise of the PC. This is simply a bogus argument......

People have been seriously concerned about the demise of all sorts of things. You see all sorts of arguments pass by. Like the Maya Calendar. Or the alignment of a few planets, the destruction of the global economy, whatever. Sometimes pointing at what happened to the dinosaurs or Area51 or who knows what. Well, we are still here! Maya Calendar ending or not. Maybe the Mayan Calendar Officer ran out of crayon. Who knows.
Bottom line is: people state all sorts of rubbish with the greatest possible belief and conviction that never happen. Why so concerned with that, why listen to them anyway?

People are strange beings with mostly only their own interests at mind (with a few minor exceptions I must admit luckily). If people want to sell you french fries, they will promote them as being healthy and tasty and what not. They will not tell you that they are not the most healthy thing you can eat. People selling you mobile software will try to convince you that you really need that stuff to keep up with competition. Somewhat like the car salesman that tells you that the car he wants to sell you has always been inside the garage overnight and belonged to an old lady who did not drive much in it. He won't tell you that they ran back the mileage in order to "prove" that. I reckon a man like Dave can tell you real horrorstories about that from hearsay....
Another example: there are many, many BMW motorcycles around for sale with a really low mileage on it. All honest of course. But BMW motorcycles being what they are, they tend to be still pretty damn good even WITH a high mileage. But people rather buy those with low mileage. That's why they tend to "do something about that". There is a HUGE market in replacement instruments for BMW Motorcycles. How would THAT come you think?

All those people get away with it because there is a vast range of activities in that area from a little bit dishonest until huge rip-offs and "some bending of the truth" in advertising and promotions is widely accepted. When companies that sell washing powder say they have "a new formula" that even washes brighter, people smile. They know and accept the "slightly all to positive message". Another type of those messages is people trying to bend you into a certain direction using "arguments" like citations "from people who know about those things". Well, let me enlighten you: nobody knows what the future will bring.

And that goes for the "pro PC guys" as well: nobody knows if the pc is going to stay much longer. Nobody. It all depends on technical development and innovation. If tomorrow there comes some type of device that does everything a pc does more efficiently and faster and it is easier to use, it will start raining PC's. I don't think the current mobile devices will BE that game changer though. They simply do not have what it takes for that. But that may happen quickly, or a complete other type of device might come on the market soon. The point is, that nobody knows and it is all guessing and presuming.

[DaveM]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

Expanding on what Marcell eluded to on Cars.

EDIT: I agree. there is no reason to worry about what is coming. Work with what is and adjust as needed when something changes. END EDIT

In the US, it has been illegal to tamper with an odometer since about 1973. When you get the tags renewed, a record is made of the mileage(in most states). A record is kept every time a vehicle changes owners. Then we have auto check and the like that follow these records as well a wrecks.

If a car is sold with true mileage unknown(TMU), it brings a fraction of the value. It is illegal to sell a car without disclosing the mileage in truth. You would risk jail time and fines that are not cheap. A Dealer loses his license forever as well as the other. Not a fun time.

Prior to the law, it was almost impossible to find a used car on a lot with over 65,000 miles on it. Usually cars had the mileage cut several times in it's lifetime.
Yes, I have some funny and some horror stories about that.

Software has no mileage problems. Like a Desoto, it may run out of love with the users.

[Paullm]

Re: The Immortality of the PC

Maybe immortality with some software, too ...

I still see a large number of Windows 98 systems on my travels … systems that do everything the owners need them to do, with no intent or NEED to “upgrade”. Indeed, software has no mileage problems!

People don’t “do” things in operating systems; they do things in applications and with that in mind … the average Joe only ever uses a small fraction of the capabilities of Microsoft Office. So, whether the latest and greatest is Office 2000, 2003, 2007 or whatever, what does it really matter?

At one time, even Alpha Software released an updated version of its [character-based] Alpha FOUR software to work with later operating systems. What does that tell you? There IS still a demand, somewhere! And, like it or not, character-based software is much faster than its graphical equivalent.

Software suppliers will eventually pull support for a particular product, but by that time you actually have in your hands a pretty stable piece of software, as it’s been patched to death!

Personally, I love Windows XP … I know it inside and out and can tweak and customize it to my heart’s content! Yes, I will eventually move to Windows 7, but in time … once a Service Pack or two has been released and everyone ELSE acted as the guinea pig!

I always read the computer press with caution. I use it only to watch for “indications” of what’s happening, but never as the basis for major technology decisions. Read any computer magazine and you are often left with the distinct feeling that you are out-of-touch, irrelevant and due for the scrap heap. (To be honest, I tend to view “head hunters” and HR Departments with similar caution).

Mobile has its uses and so does that dinosaur ... the desktop PC!

P.S. Attn: Dave M … even [marketing guru, but tech Luddite] Dan Kennedy was crowing in a recent "No B.S. Marketing Newsletter" about seeing several new models of TYPEWRITER at his local Office Max store … along with RIBBONS! Someone, somewhere is buying that stuff!